Early holiday-season spending is showing strength in Bank of America’s customer data, offering an encouraging signal for businesses preparing for their busiest selling months.
But that signal has a practical limitation: stronger spending across a large customer sample doesn't guarantee stronger demand at an individual store.
Bank of America Institute’s October 9 Consumer Checkpoint reports that September credit and debit card spending per household increased 6.2% from a year earlier, or 5.1% excluding gasoline. The Institute also found spending growth across many discretionary categories and income groups.
For retailers, the opportunity is to prepare for demand while tying purchasing and staffing decisions to what their customers are actually buying.
A strong annual comparison, with slower monthly movement
September’s seasonally adjusted card spending increased 0.2% from August. Excluding gasoline, it was little changed.
That distinction matters. Spending can remain well above last year’s level without accelerating sharply from the previous month.
A business deciding whether to add another shift or place a larger inventory order needs to consider both comparisons. Year-over-year sales help establish whether the business is improving. Recent weekly trends help show whether demand is building quickly enough to justify additional commitments.
Neither comparison should stand alone.
Higher spending does not necessarily mean more merchandise sold
The Institute reported that early spending in holiday-oriented categories was ahead of 2025, while noting that higher prices could explain part of the increase. Its holiday measure covers categories where November and December usually account for at least 20% of annual spending. It does not identify every transaction as a holiday purchase.
For an individual retailer, higher sales could reflect higher prices, more transactions, more items per purchase, or a different product mix.
Those possibilities have different operating consequences.
If customers buy more units, the store may need more stock and fulfillment capacity. If revenue rises mainly because prices increased, ordering substantially more merchandise could tie up cash in unsold inventory.
A useful holiday dashboard therefore separates sales dollars, transaction counts, units sold, and gross profit. Returns and discounts belong in that picture too: a busy season is more valuable when sales produce enough margin to cover the additional work.
Payment flexibility deserves attention
The report also found increasing use of buy now, pay later. Nearly one in five households using those services had monthly repayments above $500. That figure refers to users in the bank’s data, rather than all households. The Institute did not see a sharp acceleration in usage.
Retailers should avoid treating installment payments as proof that customers can comfortably spend more.
When evaluating payment options, businesses can consider processing costs, settlement timing, refund handling, and how clearly customers understand the terms. The relevant business question is whether a payment method supports profitable, sustainable purchases.
Use the broader signal, then check locally
This research uses proprietary Bank of America data. It is not a comprehensive measure of all U.S. consumer spending, and the report acknowledges selection bias and other limitations. Its per-household card analysis includes active consumer households making at least five card transactions during the month.
The findings support cautious optimism. They do not establish how a particular shopping district, product category, or independent retailer will perform.
Businesses can respond by tracking which products are gaining traction, keeping replenishment options open where possible, and basing staffing decisions on actual traffic and orders. Communities assessing the season should likewise distinguish broad consumer momentum from local businesses' experience.
The strongest preparation combines an encouraging wider outlook with close attention to local demand. A national spending headline is useful context; the next inventory order still needs evidence from the customers expected to buy it.
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